Google Engineer Insider Trading Hits Polymarket

Kalshi, a regulated prediction‑market platform, launched the American Power Index, a composite measure of which party controls Washington’s institutions. The index blends real‑time market odds with current House, Senate and White House control, showing Republicans ahead by 2.5 points. Though not tradable, it offers investors a political‑risk gauge.

The U.S. Justice Department charged a Google software engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, with insider trading on the prediction market Polymarket, allegedly exploiting private Google search data to win about $1.2 million. Prosecutors say he placed bets on trending searches, prompting Google to place him on leave and cooperate with authorities.

Regulators are tightening oversight of prediction‑market platforms after a Google software engineer was charged with insider trading on Polymarket, sparking a CFTC advisory and congressional probes. The moves aim to curb illicit use of non‑public information that could undermine market credibility and growth.

Investors caution that the recent rally in memory‑chip makers like Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and SanDisk may be a fleeting boom driven by AI demand. New AI‑efficiency advances such as Google’s TurboQuant could curb that demand, exposing the sector’s historic volatility and risk of a sharp pull‑back.

A New Glenn rocket exploded during a hot‑fire test, prompting Jeff Bezos to label it an "anomaly" and sending space‑related equities sharply lower. Shares of Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and others fell 7‑16%, erasing gains driven by hype around an upcoming SpaceX IPO and its lofty valuation.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a federal suit to stop Rhode Island from enforcing its gambling statutes against CFTC‑registered prediction‑market platforms. The agency says the state’s actions threaten its exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, a commodity‑derivatives market it has regulated for decades.

A new investigation reveals that U.S. companies have avoided at least $40 billion in taxes since early 2025 by exploiting loopholes in offshore jurisdictions such as Malta, Bermuda, and Cyprus, enabled by Trump-era tax rules. The findings highlight how subtle policy changes can fuel large-scale corporate tax avoidance.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said relying on AI-driven productivity gains to lower inflation is risky, urging the Fed to keep policy vigilant. He cautioned that with rates below neutral and inflation above target, bets on future AI gains could undermine price stability efforts.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned that raising rates to combat a recent inflation spike, fueled by energy and tariffs, would be ineffective and could strain the economy. She urged a cautious approach, noting research that temporary energy shocks shouldn’t trigger aggressive policy changes.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told analysts the bank could deploy $10‑$20 billion on a takeover in the next few years, the largest deal of his 20‑year tenure. He stressed any target must fit seamlessly with JPMorgan’s operations and not replace organic growth.

Hospitality mogul Tilman Fertitta is buying Caesars Entertainment for $5.7 billion in cash and assuming $12 billion of debt, valuing the deal at $17.6 billion. The merger would combine Caesars’ casino and online‑gaming footprint with Fertitta’s Golden Nugget, Rainforest Café, Houston Rockets and DraftKings stakes, creating a gaming empire of roughly 60 resorts and 200+ sports‑betting sites.