Rivian sinks 18%, KOSPI crashes 22%, IPO frenzy hits 1929 levels

Rivian shares tumbled 18% after a 75‑million‑share offering that will raise about $1.5 billion, but investors worry the capital raise signals deeper cash‑flow strains. The drop marks the EV maker's worst single‑day loss since 2024, underscoring market anxiety over its profitability timeline.

South Korea's KOSPI peaked at 9,385 on June 19, up 122% year‑to‑date, then fell 22% to enter a technical bear market after a 5% daily drop on July 8. The sell‑off reflects profit‑taking, $11.7 bn of foreign outflows and regulator warnings on leveraged ETFs tied to semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix, which also face cycle‑risk concerns.

U.S. companies are racing to raise $260 billion in IPOs this year, a volume not seen since the 1999-2000 dot-com boom or the 1929 crash. Analysts warn that such exuberance often precedes a sharp market correction, and some forecast a 40% equity drop within a year if the trend continues.

The Russell 2000 has surged over 20% YTD, its strongest first‑half showing since 1991, while the S&P 500 lags. A closing valuation gap, 18× forward earnings versus 26× for the S&P, and AI tailwinds pushing earnings growth forecasts to 38% fuel the rally. Investors may want to add broad small‑cap ETFs such as VTWO or VBR.

Meta disclosed that four U.S. states are demanding $1.4 trillion in penalties, about the size of its market cap, over claims the company engineered addiction for teens. The figure, which Meta says is unsupported, will be debated at an August trial that could set a historic benchmark for consumer‑protection enforcement.

Saylor touts a 3.3% yearly Bitcoin growth rate as enough to fund MicroStrategy’s preferred dividends forever, but soaring dividend obligations and a 49% drop from Bitcoin’s peak expose a fragile assumption. Critics warn the model ignores compounding debt and could force costly bitcoin sales.

Samsung Electronics reported a Q2 operating profit of 89.4 trillion won (≈$58 billion), roughly 19‑fold year‑on‑year and larger than the combined profit of the previous three years. The surge, driven by soaring AI‑memory chip demand, pushed Samsung ahead of Nvidia and Apple as the most profitable tech firm, even as its shares slipped.

Xbox CEO Asha Sharma announced an immediate loss of 1,600 positions, part of a 20% workforce reduction that will total about 3,200 cuts by fiscal 2027. The move also spins off four studios and signals a major reset as Microsoft redirects resources toward AI and core growth areas.

BofA’s mid‑year outlook flags a K‑shaped split: affluent households enjoy strong spending, while lower‑income families face stagflation‑type pressures. The divergence threatens consumer‑driven growth and could force policymakers to balance inflation control with targeted relief for strained households.

Deutsche Bank’s macro head Jim Reid says AI will eventually lift productivity, but meaningful gains won’t materialise for several years. In the meantime, he warns that the technology’s failure to deliver could exacerbate already‑fragile sovereign debt levels and add pressure to inflation and market valuations.

The Army awarded conditional long‑term leases to four firms to design, finance, build and run critical‑mineral processing facilities on underused bases, including a rare‑earth plant for dysprosium and terbium at Tooele, Utah. This marks the first time commercial mineral plants sit on U.S. military land, aiming to cut reliance on China and secure defense supply chains.

Anthropic claims three Chinese AI firms, DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and MiniMax, used roughly 24,000 fraudulent accounts to generate over 16 million Claude interactions, extracting the model’s capabilities through “distillation.” The alleged breach of Anthropic’s service rules highlights a new front in U.S., China AI competition and raises security alarms.

China’s cybersecurity agency says Anthropic’s Claude Code versions 2.1.91‑2.1.196 can exfiltrate location and identity data, urging users to uninstall or upgrade. The warning escalates US‑China AI tensions as Chinese firms like Alibaba halt internal use.