Goldman Warns Inflation Spreads as Oil Reserve Hits 1983 Low

EIA weekly data show the SPR at 316.5 M barrels, 3 M less than the prior week and the smallest stockpile in four decades. With the buffer shrinking amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, the U.S. has less leeway to smooth sudden oil supply shocks.

CEO Robert Isom outlined a plan centered on expanding premium lounges, adding high‑end seats and ordering new wide‑body jets to narrow a $3 billion profit gap with United and Delta. Executives hope the upgrades will lift higher‑fare revenue, though a timeline for closing the gap wasn’t provided.

General Mills and J.M. Smucker wrote off nearly $5 billion in brand goodwill, blaming higher discount rates and integration woes. Their disclosures never mention GLP‑1 drugs, even though those weight‑loss meds cut grocery spending by about 5 %. The omission suggests the real pressure is on brand valuations as consumers shift toward healthier options.

Goldman Sachs’ chief US economist says the current inflation shock is broadening out across consumer categories, directly contradicting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s aim to isolate price spikes. The broader pressure could limit the Fed’s ability to keep rates steady and delay any cuts until 2027.

In Q3 2025 mortgage debt rose $108 billion, unchanged from the prior quarter, while debt as a share of GDP slipped to 43.9%, far below the 73% peak during the 2008 bust. The data shows homeowners now hold sizable equity cushions, effectively closing the "Home ATM".

Stripe and private‑equity firm Advent have submitted a cash offer of $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at about $53.4 billion. The bid gives the board a meeting as early as July 20, forcing new CEO Enrique Lores to weigh a sale against his turnaround plan.

Jeremy Allaire argues that autonomous AI agents need a crypto‑backed value layer, positioning Circle’s USDC as the default “software money.” He points to new stablecoin projects, Visa’s merchant platform, and SWIFT’s blockchain ledger as early infrastructure that could reshape how brands transact.