Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a CNBC interview that the K‑shaped economy is "dead," claiming lower‑income earners are finally catching up. Yet wage‑growth data and other metrics still show a sizable gap between the bottom and top quartiles, suggesting his optimism may be premature and could shape policy narratives.
The June 2026 labor‑force participation rate fell to 61.6%, the lowest since 1976. The Fed analysis shows 43% of the drop came from a BLS population‑control correction, 41% from a sharp dip among prime‑age workers, and the remaining 16% reflects an aging population. The trend could signal deeper labor‑market weakness.
July’s ISM manufacturing index jumped to 55.6, the strongest since May 2022, but the prices sub‑index lingered at 71.1, marking the 22nd month of rising costs. Executives say price volatility now feels worse than the pandemic, nudging the Fed toward a September rate hike.