OECD warns prolonged Iran war could slash global growth to 2% and trigger recessions
The OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) outlines two scenarios for the Iran‑U.S. war. In a prolonged‑disruption case, global GDP growth falls to 2.1 % in 2026 and 1.8 % in 2027, inflation rises and many energy‑importing economies risk recession, highlighting the severe macroeconomic fallout of extended oil supply shocks.