AI’s Task‑Completion Horizon Doubling Every 7 Months Signals Multi‑Hour Automation Soon
Researchers introduce the 50%-task-completion time horizon, measuring how long humans take to finish tasks that AI can do with 50% success. Frontier models now hit a 50-minute horizon, and this metric has been doubling roughly every seven months since 2019. If the trend holds, AI will handle multi-hour software jobs within two years.