AI takeoff models need generation time, not just growth rates
A new mathematical analysis says an AI intelligence explosion is less likely to hit a true vertical takeoff than recent economics-based models suggest, which matters for forecasts of how quickly AI could improve itself. The paper identifies a neglected middle case: growth faster than exponential but without a finite-time singularity. Its key variable is generation time, the time needed to complete one loop of AI-assisted AI research; singular growth requires that time to approach zero.