AI researchers put an 18% average chance on extinction or disempowerment
The 2024 AI Impacts survey suggests advanced AI risk is a mainstream concern among researchers, not a fringe view: respondents gave an average 18% chance to AI causing human extinction or similarly permanent, severe disempowerment. More than half assigned at least 10%, and one in three at least 20%. The survey collected 1,580 valid responses in December 2024, though individual questions had smaller samples.